James new crown test is turned negative by positive for two days, of course, not because he is good!

On December 1st, James three new crown tests, two yin yang, thus triggered the health and safety agreement of the alliance. If he can’t measure negative two consecutive times in 24 hours, it will be at least 10 days.

Today, ESPN reported that James has returned to Los Angeles to today, continuously did 8 new crown virus detection, all of which were negative, so you can come back in the game tomorrow.

From this, I saw a lot of saying: For example, the alliance was a green light in James. In order to increase the point of Lok, Lok, and said that James is good, defeating the new crown two days …

These statements are very reasonable, but carefully think that the loopholes are found, in fact, it is not so complicated, and I know that the probability of probability is known that this is a false positive issue.

Be a calculation of https://www.maillotbasket6.com everyone can understand:

It is assumed that a 10% group of 10% – 9000 healthy, 1000 infected – doing new crown testing, the accuracy of the test is 95%.

When the detection ends, the number of detected positive should be divided into two parts:

The first part is 1000 people infected, and it is correctly detected 95% of positive, ie 1000 * 95% = 950;

The second part is a healthy 9000 people, the false positives detected, namely 9000 * 5% = 450 people.

The magical thing happened that there were only 1,000 infected people in the group, but 1400 positive samples were detected.

That is to say, even if someone is in 1400 samples, the probability of false positives is still as high as 32% (450/1400), I believe this probability is expected to be expected to detect most people in the premise of 95% of the detection https://www.maillotsbasketfr.com accuracy.

The larger the scale, the more positive problems will appear. That is why there are many reasons why there are several detection after some people have detected positive, which is to try to avoid false positive issues.

At the same time, it is also the reason for the alliance required to be inspected for 24 hours to confirm the reasons for the athletes from the yin, because even if the accuracy rate is 95%, if a single athlete is only detected, the probability of false negative is 5%, if do Two times, this probability becomes 0.25%.

The more times the number of times, the more the probability of testing is close to 1, the more the probability of the error is approaching 0.

But it can only be approaching, it is impossible to equal, this is the core area of ??probability thinking, and the small probability https://www.nbatrikots4.com event does not mean not happen.

Everyone must understand that the correctness is probably, and the vaccine is also probably the protection of the inoculum, and anything in life is probably.

Learn a little bit of probability, it will help with this world that never is non-black.

Thank you for reading!

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